5 predictions for social media in 2011 / Act On / Social Media

5 predictions for social media in 2011

 

While I’m certainly no Nostradamus, I've paid close attention to the latest developments, trends and issues in the world of social media over the past year-and-a-half. Using those insights I've compiled my predictions for social media in 2011, which you can find below in no particular order.

Some may be considered ‘safe’ predictions while others are intentionally a bit more bold—I’ve tried to find a balance while still being realistic. Have a read and then let me know your predictions in the comments.

Location-based services will go mainstream

Despite a ton of skepticism out there, 2011 stands to be the year that location-based services will go mainstream. Among the companies that will be the primary drivers of this trend are Topguest, Foursquare and Facebook, with its newish Places and Dealsservices. Also, keep an eye on upstarts like SCVNGR, who recently struck a deal with high-profile Napa Valley wineries.

As the ‘big three’ strike more deals with businesses frequented by everyday consumers, the notion of ‘checking-in’ will become more and more common. We've already seen this happen during Black Friday and I fully expect to see this activity dramatically increase in the new year.

The social media measurement space will see significant consolidation

This is one I sincerely hope comes to fruition. Over the past couple years new tools and services were launched daily, each claiming to help brands monitor, respond, engage or determine the influence or impact of their social media efforts. The rapid proliferation of different tools and methodologies for tracking and measuring social media, while a natural part of the evolution process, has led to increased confusion among brands seeking to show or ‘prove’ the ROI of their efforts.

From my point of view, there are at least two ways this consolidation will take place--either via acquisition (like Marketwire’s purchase of Sysomos) or due to the platform vendors building their own tools to do what dozens of other companies are attempting to do (see Twitter Analytics). Either way, I look forward to the day when there are a handful of robust offerings rather than an exorbitant number of companies offering what amount to nothing more than small features that should be within a bigger solution.

Twitter will find a viable business model

Or at least it better given its recent round of funding at a $3.7 billion valuation. 2010 was clearly a year where Twitter focused on becoming a business—it appointed Dick Costolo CEO and aggressively started experimenting with various advertising models (see Promoted Tweets, Promoted Trends, Promoted Accounts). More recently, it opened up those advertising opportunities to the masses with its revamped Twitter for Business site.

I believe that 2011 will see the company ‘crack the nut’ on a business model that will enable it to become financially viable and ultimately give those VCs a return on their investment. To be clear: I’m not predicting Twitter will become profitable in 2011, but rather it will find a business model that will enable it to get to profitability down the road.

Online privacy will become an even more contested issue

By now we’re all well-aware of the privacy issues experienced by Facebook users in 2010 and the recent situation with Gawker being hacked and millions of user passwords being compromised. Further compounding the situation is the fact that so many Websites, blogs and social networks allow users to login with credentials from other sites (e.g., Sign in with Twitter, Facebook Login).

As the Web continues to mature and location-based services see increased use I believe we’re only at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to issues with consumer privacy online. At this point, I’m not so sure there is such thing as “privacy online,” the problem is most people assume or expect there to be. There will surely be continued angst around issues of privacy among consumers using social and location-based tools in the coming year.

One of the larger social networks won’t make it through 2011

By this I mean one of them will be acquired and/or otherwise shut down. At this point in time the most likely candidate may well be MySpace (I just don’t see the latest Facebook deal having much of an impact), which has already been put on notice by News Corp. COO Chase Carey.

Another potential candidate, despite its momentum, has got to be Foursquare. The company hasn’t (yet) raised a ridiculous amount of venture capital and continues to grow at a solid clip—which certainly has to make it attractive to larger potential suitors.